2010 looks to be a year that will continue the upheaval of traditional media that has marked much of the last decade. My own prediction is that the trend will accelerate and change will come even more quickly. To be a fine point on it, the s*&t is about to hit the fan.
It looks like cable television will be the next industry to face tremendous changes. In the past and at present, cable providers demanded that accept all sorts of second and third tier stations in a bundle with the real crown jewels like HBO. To break it down even further, HBO then packaged all sorts of stuff you didn’t want to see (i.e. ’80s movies) in order to receive their crown jewels, like say, The Sopranos. Well, that model is breaking down. Jeff Jarvis had a great take on this in a recent Buzz Machine posting.
The process has now started, thru companies like Hulu, where it is possible to view programs on an ala carte basis. The move to cut out the middlemen has begun. We won’t need Cablevision to watch the shows we want, courtesy of the Internet. In the future, we may no longer need companies like HBO to watch the stuff we really want once production companies and others can distribute it directly via the Net.
So, who are the winners and the losers…. Well, you can already stick the fork in network television. Done. Cable is next once distribution of video content truly becomes a commodity. The winners are likely to be those production companies (and others) who can produce or who have access to truly desirable and/or cheap content. I think the real winners will be advertising agencies that have direct access to sponsors and content and the talent agencies and management companies that can bundle talent into desirable packages (e.g. ICM, Endeavor). There are also those “personal brands” like “Martha” and “Oprah” that continue to crank out desirable content under a recognized brand, but are truly content agnostic.
Interestingly, it’s a bit Back to the Future…. Remember, United Artists… The original United Artists, the silent film starts, including Charlie Chaplin and Mary Pickford who once upon a time ago formed a company that would enable them to control the types of films that they made. I think we’re back there.
There is one wild card in all of this, and it’s (take a deep breath) net neutrality. As long as everyone has equal access to the Net, I believe we’ll really see the cream rise to the top – content will really be king, no matter if it’s produced by Disney or in some guys backyard. If preferential treatment is given to the big guys with the deep pockets, we’ll continue to be served a lot of the same old crap, at least in the short term.
Stay tuned….
July 30, 2010 | Posted by Gordon Platt 
Categories: Digital Publishing, iPad | 
Tags: Digital Media | 
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